Tarot Probability

Tarot Probability is played with cards 1-21 and the Excuse, or Fool, from a typical tarot deck. Deal is determined randomly. There are four phases in each round. In the first phase, five cards are dealt. The player to the dealer's left bids on how many tricks she can take. Bidding continues for all players, clockwise, until the dealer is reached. The dealer can then bid any number of cards, EXCEPT whatever number would make the total number of bids equal to the number of cards dealt. For example, in the first phase of a four player game, player one bids 2, player two bids 0, and player three bids 2. Player four can then bid any number but 1, as that would equal five total bids, which is the number of cards dealt.

The player sitting to the dealer's left also throws the first card. Tricks are taken by the highest numerical card. The Excuse can either be played as a "win trick" or "lose trick". Players who bid correctly gain 10 points, those one trick off from their bid score 0, those two tricks off score -10, those three tricks off score -20, those four tricks off score -30, and those five tricks off score -40.

Phases in odd numbered rounds are dealt as follows: 5 cards, 4 cards, 3 cards, 2 cards, and 1 card placed on the forehead for all players but the card holder to see. Even numbered rounds are dealt as follows: 2 cards placed on the forehead, 3 cards, 4 cards, and 5 cards. The deal changes between each round. When 2 cards are placed on the forehead, cards are still played singly, with the first card chosen randomly.

Game length is variable, but typically ends after everyone has dealt twice. The player with the most points wins. In the event of a tie, a final two cards are dealt and placed on the foreheads of the tied players. The final places are determined by the outcome of that hand.